Heating Oil Is Up 21% This Winter. How to Budget Your Heating Bill
See your own safe-to-spend number Free paycheck budget, set up in 60 seconds →Your heating bill this winter depends on what heats your home. The Energy Information Administration expects homes that heat with oil to spend $2,115 from November through March, up 21%. Homes on natural gas spend about $640, down 9%, and electric heat is up 4%. The way to keep the cold months from wrecking your budget is the same in a studio apartment or a big house: estimate the winter total, then set part of it aside from every paycheck until March.
What heat costs this winter, by fuel
| Main heating fuel | Share of homes | Nov–Mar spending | vs last winter | Average price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | 45% | $640 | Down 9% | $13.44 per thousand cubic feet |
| Electricity | 43% | $1,196 | Up 4% | 18.23¢ per kWh |
| Propane | 5% | $1,246 | Down 3% | $2.52 a gallon |
| Heating oil | 3% | $2,115 | Up 21% | $5.26 a gallon |
EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, October 6, 2026. Totals include other uses of the same fuel, such as hot water and cooking.
Where you live changes the bill
| Region | Natural gas | Electricity | Propane |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $879 (down 14%) | $1,637 (down 3%) | $1,687 (down 15%) |
| Midwest | $613 (down 10%) | $1,380 (up 3%) | $1,305 (down 4%) |
| South | $511 (down 15%) | $1,079 (up 3%) | $1,164 (no change) |
| West | $590 (up 7%) | $1,151 (up 9%) | Not reported |
The West is the exception. A colder winter after an unusually mild one pushes both gas and electric bills up there, even where prices barely moved. Heating oil is mostly a Northeast fuel, and the milder weather forecast there softens some of the 34% price jump.
Spread the winter across your paychecks
If you're paid every two weeks, about 11 paydays fall between early November and the end of March. Divide the winter total by 11 and set that much aside from each check. Or ask your utility for budget billing, which spreads a year of usage into equal monthly payments.
| Main fuel | Winter total | Set aside per biweekly paycheck | Spread over 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | $640 | $58 | $53 a month |
| Electricity | $1,196 | $109 | $100 a month |
| Propane | $1,246 | $113 | $104 a month |
| Heating oil | $2,115 | $192 | $176 a month |
These are national averages. A bigger or older house, a colder town or a second home can cost far more. Start from last winter's bills, add your fuel's change from the tables above, and use that number.
At every income
- If money is tight: call your utility before a bill is late and ask about budget billing and hardship programs. Apply for LIHEAP, the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, through your state. A shutoff notice shouldn't be the first sign of trouble.
- In the middle: the set-aside per paycheck is the whole plan. Treat it like rent, and the January bill is already paid when it arrives.
- Earning more: big homes, second homes, heated garages and pools make winter bills larger and easier to ignore. A $1,500 bill you didn't plan for still comes out of something you did plan. Put it in the budget anyway.
Cut the bill without freezing
- Turn the thermostat back 7 to 10 degrees for 8 hours a day. The Department of Energy says that saves up to 10% a year on heating and cooling. Overnight and while you're at work is the easy 8 hours.
- Shop every oil or propane delivery. Prices differ between dealers, and EIA expects heating oil to fall from $5.79 a gallon in November to $4.84 by March. Ask about budget plans that spread payments out.
- Fix the cheap stuff. A new furnace filter and weatherstripping on drafty doors cost little and work all winter.
- Watch your bill, not the forecast. If January's bill runs above your set-aside, raise the set-aside for the rest of the season instead of putting the gap on a card. How to budget when prices rise.
Plan winter bills before they arrive.
MyGood plans each paycheck, sets money aside for bills that come later, and shows what's left until payday. Free, no bank login.
Try MyGood free → Not sure what you can spend this week? How much can I spend until payday?This article is general education, not financial advice. Your bill depends on your home, your weather and your rates.
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026–27, October 6, 2026.
- U.S. Department of Energy, Programmable thermostats.
- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP).
Frequently asked questions
How much will it cost to heat my home in winter 2026-27?
EIA expects average household spending from November through March of $640 for natural gas (down 9%), $1,196 for electricity (up 4%), $1,246 for propane (down 3%) and $2,115 for heating oil (up 21%). Your bill depends on your home, region and weather.
Why is heating oil so expensive this winter?
EIA says global crude oil and distillate prices are higher, global distillate production has dropped with reduced refining, and U.S. stocks are low heading into winter. It forecasts heating oil at $5.26 a gallon on average, 34% more than last winter.
How do I budget for winter heating bills?
Estimate the winter total from last year's bills plus your fuel's expected change, then divide it by the paychecks left before March. With biweekly pay that is about 11 paychecks, so a $1,196 electric winter is about $109 per paycheck.
What is budget billing?
Budget billing, sometimes called levelized billing, is a utility option that averages a year of usage into equal monthly payments, so winter bills don't spike. Most gas and electric utilities offer it, and some oil and propane dealers offer similar payment plans.
Can I get help paying my heating bill?
Households with lower incomes can apply for LIHEAP, the federal Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, through their state, and many utilities run hardship programs. Call before a bill is past due. MyGood is a free app that sets money aside for bills like these from each paycheck, without connecting your bank.